Gurshawn Jagpal

Equity indices are rallying, along with gold and Bitcoin. Some say the market rally today was caused by Fed member Chris Waller leaning on not hiking the Fed funds rate. I try not to read into these daily market movements of Fed rate change expectations. The trend can change very fast, so I try not to read into the movements too much.

In my opinion, the Fed should postpone rate hikes. I would wait for oil prices to eventually come down; hopefully, Persia will end the war soon. I think that the Fed shouldn’t raise rates as that might cause less AI Data Center development and might slow economic growth. I believe the Fed should watch for the inflation rate to slow, before any decision on rate hikes happen. In other words, let the free market reduce inflation on its own rather than blind intervention; rate hikes can just unnecessarily slow economic growth.  

Tesla, SpaceX, Microsoft, Oracle, Goldman Sachs, and other names have been rallying strongly on this trading day. Semiconductor names are pretty much flat, except for Nvidia. Gold mining stocks like $NEM are rallying with the gold prices. Robinhood is up 15%, due to higher Bitcoin prices and Scott Bessent, in my opinion, trying to get Clarity Act through the Senate. The Clarity Act, if implemented, will really expand mainstream adoption of crypto technology and that benefits names like Robinhood, Coinbase, Circle internet group, and crypto prices.

Broadcom stock is down today despite great earnings. I added to my position in Broadcom as they expect AI revenues to increase from 58 billion this year to over 230 billion dollars in 2028 (My position, not a recommendation.) I believe Broadcom earnings show that the AI economy still has room to expand. I think Broadcom went down due to high expectations. I added due to RSI being in the 30’s and the market is at a 200 Moving average (My position, not a recommendation). Usually, buying a high-quality compounder at RSI 30/ 200 – day moving average tends to be profitable.

Nvidia stocks went up despite the semiconductor sector being flat. The market, in my opinion, likes Nvidia acquisition of Hugging Face. By buying Hugging Face, it shows the market that Nvidia is not just a semiconductor name but rather a full-service AI company. I was talking to a friend about how no one used to ever invest in semiconductor stocks. In the 2010’s, it was very risky and very cyclical like investing in steel stocks. It’s interesting to see how times have changed.

Tesla and SpaceX stocks both went up. Tesla seems to be breaking out. For SpaceX, any break above $150 would seem to indicate more upward momentum. $150 was the price it came on the public markets. This is a very interesting name to watch.

$USDJPY went down as the Japanese Yen rallied today. There are more talks about intervention by the Bank of Japan to try to increase their currency prices. I would rather to not fight against both the US treasury and Bank of Japan. I am playing this trend through $FXY (my position, not a recommendation).

I want to take accountability; I was wrong about Dell and Broadcom. I thought Dell would fall as it was priced for perfection while Broadcom would rally as the stock has been weak. I learned to never fight the trend in markets. If the trend is up or down, try not to fight the trend but rather ride it. However, I had no position in Dell, so I didn’t lose or make anything.

Currently, I am mostly watching the trend. I want to see if sovereign yields stop increasing and if oil prices begin to fall. Next week, volumes should rise as traders begin to trade in the markets more. September tends to have equity indices produce negative returns.

Working notes. I used AI only to clean grammar. The views are mine. Not investment, tax, or

legal advice.